Late September MFS - Page 2 - Mountain Buzz
 



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Old 08-10-2016   #11
 
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Up North, Oregon
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Well, looking at the historical daily data at the MF Salmon at Yellow Pine gage data, currently 1.3 feet on the gage translates to 362 cfs. 362 cfs is way below daily median values for September of around 580 to 656 cfs. Ignoring the issue of the gage rating changing over the years, September flows have only been near or lower than 362 cfs in 1977 and 2001. However, there is no data for this gage available for most of the 1980s and 1990s.


Wickums bio indicates he has been floating since 1996. USGS at Whitebird gage was at or above average in September from 1996 to 2000 so it is likely that the MF Salmon was not experiencing abnomally low flows in those years, so Wickum's 1.3 foot trip mostly likely could have only been in 2001 assuming Wickum was not trolling or miss-remembering.

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Old 08-10-2016   #12
 
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boise, Idaho
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Nice detective work shap! I double checked my pictures and noticed we launched at 1.55, not sure where the heck I got 1.3 from but this was 4 years ago during that noro virus outbreak.

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Old 08-10-2016   #13
Dipshit with the most.
 
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Originally Posted by shappattack View Post
....low flows in those years, so Wickum's 1.3 foot trip mostly likely could have only been in 2001 assuming Wickum was not trolling or miss-remembering.
I was on the river that August and.......it was interesting. Got stuck in places I had never known that I could. Found new rocks still unmarked by aluminum and got giarda due to the outfitter I was guest guiding for using unfiltered water from a side stream - during the lowest water year any of us had seen.

Quite a year.

I have launched several times below 500 cfs and once down to closer to 400. When we were poor, usually running solo and the plane wasn't an option. Yes we got down the river and did have a good time, but for the unaware or unprepared their is an ass whipping just waiting to be handed out. I know the river really well and still get pretty stuck a good dozen times in that range and who bothers to count all the little hangups? At 650 to 700 cfs or above I can usually work the dry shoe, but below 500...game on.

After being fairly glib about fall boating and low water, I have seen and heard some horror stories. So all those thinking this will be awesome ( it usually is) and that flying in 10 cases of beer will make it easy (it will help) be realistic about your low water skills and threshold for pain.

The trend I am looking at is generally higher water than last year, but a bit below median. What the hell is the difference between median and average? Never did get that one.

Good luck, be safe.
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Old 08-10-2016   #14
Dipshit with the most.
 
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Bellevue, Idaho
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Originally Posted by wickums View Post
Nice detective work shap! I double checked my pictures and noticed we launched at 1.55, not sure where the heck I got 1.3 from but this was 4 years ago during that noro virus outbreak.

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I just saw this. No worries, I just don't want folks thinking 1.3 isn't bad. I hope I don't have to find out. 1.55 is a lot better.

Someone posted up about a mythical 1.1 trip they were on and I did a bit of research around that a while back looking for that low of flow but could not find. Sounds like Shap did too.
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Old 08-10-2016   #15
 
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Originally Posted by carvedog View Post

Someone posted up about a mythical 1.1 trip they were on and I did a bit of research around that a while back looking for that low of flow but could not find. Sounds like Shap did too.
It did get down to about 1.1 feet in 1977 as well as pretty close in 2001 (1.17 feet) using the current stage-discharge relationship (i.e. how many feet on the gage = what flow in cfs).

Also on average (i.e. mean) vs median. Average is the sum of values divided by the number of values.

Median is the value that is smack dab in the middle of a range of values when lined up lowest to highest.

for example, lets say daily flow values for some period of interest are

500, 500, 600, 700, 3000.

The median value is 600, the average is 1060 (nearly double the median), but probability wise, if you randomly picked one of these values, on average you would pic a value 4 out of 5 times that was close to 600 cfs, only a 1 in 5 chance of picking the value a lot higher than 600 cfs.

Averages can be highly screwed up or down based on extreme outlier values. Averages don't work well for examining stream flows to determine what you might expect in the future based on what the distribution of values were in the past, especially when looking at flows in the higher ranges cause floods really screw things up and cause huge outliers. For low water season, averages tend to be a lot close to median values because the range between really low flows and really high flows during the "low" water season is a lot less compared to the range of values that might occur during the medium or high water season.

Bottom line, best to look at median value if you are looking at what to expect "on average" to occur during any particular boating month or season.
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Old 08-10-2016   #16
 
Evereywhere, State of Bliss
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Originally Posted by carvedog View Post
Why would you want to go in late September? Frosty nights, horseflies the size of small planes, no one around for safety if you have problems, gettng stuck all the time......who needs it? Better off to stay home and watch the political shit shows unfold and make sure our country stays/gets on track.
Thats it! I'm canceling! HEEEEHEEEE!

I remember the snow last September falling on us day 2 out of Boundary. Woke up at Big Bend and the hills had a dusting. It let up eventually but then we had big winds as we rolled into Dolly. We were beaten down and cold.

Nothing a hot toddy or two didn't fix!
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Old 08-10-2016   #17
 
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Christopher Creek, Arizona
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[QUOTE=carvedog;442330]
I have launched several times below 500 cfs and once down to closer to 400. When we were poor, usually running solo and the plane wasn't an option. Yes we got down the river and did have a good time, but for the unaware or unprepared their is an ass whipping just waiting to be handed out. I know the river really well and still get pretty stuck a good dozen times in that range and who bothers to count all the little hangups? At 650 to 700 cfs or above I can usually work the dry shoe, but below 500...game on.

That pretty much sums it up for us. We have been boating the base flows for the last 6 years and have come to really enjoy the top. Get hung up, spin off. Get stuck good, put a foot or both in the water, push, lift and spin. We have not had to winch off of anything yet, fingers always crossed. We did have a family with us a couple years back who took the experience a little too casual and we spend a good bit of time helping them out of one jam after another. After Pistol, not so much. We are now really selective about who goes. Right now its four people 2 boats. We usually have a couple of canoeists along but so far they are not committing.
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