Originally Posted by ednorton
The widtsoe snotel site has the snow pack at 110% of the median is that mich of an indicator how the river will run in the middle of May?
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Our last reliable, big snow year was 2011. Compared to that year the Widstoe site is 2.5 inches less on SWE, air temperature is an average 3-5F warmer, and 6 inches less accumulated snow.
The warmer air temperature all season combined with the other elements (assuming all stays steady) leads me to believe it will be a earlier and lower release. One difficult variable is how much the local reservoirs and farmers pull from that release, which could be significant considering the last 2-3 years have been noticeably dry.
That is only one station though, despite it being the only one directly in the drainage (others look like they directly feed north or east of the escalante). They provide a fuller picture of the entire drainage though if you look at their aspect. Unfortunately, Sunflower would give a good estimate on Deer Creek, etc but they don't have enough data for 20 year averages (2 inches more SWE than last year which was abysmal but noticeably warmer). Clayton Springs is a good indicator for what will be coming out below the town of Escalante in drainages like Pine, Sand and Death Hollow and it looks grim at 70% average.
The historic data shows the SWE peaks in early April so that would be the best time to check, compare and vaguely plan for launch. Storms forecasted this week but currently are predicted to hold very little snow. Just hope it stays cold and doesn't turn into a rain on snow event.