Wag the McCain? Hmmmm.....

[DurangoSteve]

Vlad the Impaler may be onto something...

Putin says suspects U.S. provoked Georgia crisis - Yahoo! News

[SummitAP]

That's pretty much reminiscent of straight up Soviet propoganda. Why should we believe anything the Russians are saying on this? After all, they are still in violation of the cease fire they signed with the EU, threatening to annex Crimea from Ukraine for siding with Georgia, and threatening to bomb Poland for putting in defensive missiles.

Remember the Russian justification for invading Georgia? The Russians were saying that Georgia murdered thousands and thousands of civilians on purpose? And then it came out to be false; there were a few hundred deaths and both sides were responsible and the Russians were ethnically cleansing the Georgians from South Ossetia?


I don't trust much of anything Putin says anymore, and never really did. Only fools like George W Bush (and you???) believe Putin. Stop believing every conspiracy theory you hear without question just because it makes someone you don't like look bad. Think critically. This conflict made the West look weak and Russia look strong. It makes W look three times the fool for saying that he looked into Putin's eyes and found him trustworthy. That is not something W wanted for his legacy.

[DurangoSteve]

I think it's intriguing. Is it the truth? Who knows? There are some pretty unwell folks in Washington... and Moscow.

Originally Posted by SummitAP

That's pretty much reminiscent of straight up Soviet propoganda. Why should we believe anything the Russians are saying on this? After all, they are still in violation of the cease fire they signed with the EU, threatening to annex Crimea from Ukraine for siding with Georgia, and threatening to bomb Poland for putting in defensive missiles.

Remember during the war when the Russians were saying the Georgia murdered thousands and thousands of civilians on purpose? And then it came out that there were a few hundred deaths and both sides were responsible?


I don't trust much of anything Putin says anymore, and never really did. Only fools like George W Bush believe Putin. Stop believing every conspiracy theory you hear without question just because it makes someone you don't like look bad.

[DurangoSteve]

Originally Posted by SummitAP

Stop believing every conspiracy theory you hear without question just because it makes someone you don't like look bad. Think critically.

Take a deep breath. Now exhale. Repeat until the mania subsides.

Did I ever say that I believed Vlad? I think it's an interesting story. Do you think that stirring the Georgia "pot" to bolster McCain's commander-in-chief credentials is unimaginable? Really? Heard of Randy Scheunemann, McCain's lobbyist/adviser? The guy who's made a bundle lobbying for Georgia?

I think the possibility of a wag the dog scenario is quite real.

I suggest decaf. You're wound up pretty tight.

[mania]

mania will never subside!

[sj]

Saw that and thought it interesting. Now morally I wouldn't put it past either of the last 2 Presidents to pull a stunt like this. BUT the fact remains Due to his Unilateral Policies, War of choice and Overall Arrogance President Bush is the most hated Leader in the World right now. Putin ,Mugabe not even close.

So now Putin has just sacked a Democracy and basically told the World to suck it nothing you can do about it. But he does have a little PR problemo. So he just puts the seed of doubt in the heads of Western Europeans. Because who do they hate more and trust less. Him or Bush. Classic cold war Politics. And unfortunately the good ole USA is the bad guy because of the last 8 years of Foreign policy. sj

[heliodorus04]

I swear I'd like to smack some of y'all's heads...

The best intel I've seen suggests that Putin goaded Shakisvili into a trap, and Shakisvili fell for it. I can't find the damn link right now, but it's from a good source (as I only read good sources ).

Step 1: Stage a few dozen aircraft, and what amounts to basically a US armored strike team north of Ossetia.
(Georgia did not notice, or did not care - we don't know at this point)

Step 2: Have the South Ossetians fire off a few heavy caliber mortar salvos at Georgian neighborhoods in South Ossetia, or into Georgia itself (I forget which the article claimed, but in either case, the South Ossetia, pro-Russian armed "enemy combatants" fired off some rounds, precipitating a Georgian response.

Step 3: Watch as Georgia launches a "quick strike" of its own, over-extending a small, yet competent military force (as is Georgia).

Step 4: Launch Russian armored strike team into Georgia using what amounts to a modern (i.e. Iraqi-Freedom) war of maneuver, over-running Georgian supply lines and using air power to engage maneuver elements and staging areas.

Putin is no dumb-ass, folks. He is mentally disciplined and systematically competent. He is not evil

Your enemy is never a villlian in his own eyes. Keep this in mind; it may offer a way to make him your friend. If not, you can kill him without hate--and quickly.

And he played George Bush like a mother-fucking FIDDLE.

The Bush administration encouraged Georgia, over a matter of several years. All the while, Putin bided his time and waited for the over-reach first of the US (which gave overtures of promising to get S. Ossetia back into the fold), and then for Shakisvili to add a spark to a (relatively small) powder keg.

Poof!

Had the US any competent strategists, this might have been seen coming. But we don't.

Georgia has lost those territories, and no chain of events that we can even remotely guess or set in motion will get them back. As I view geo-politics, I say this is how it should be. The US gambled, and lost, and now they've got to play a new hand with new money. To Russia I say "Well played, Ivan". Seriously - you should admire Russian strategists.

What this does NOT do (unless the US is dumb enough to elect McSame) is refuel the Cold War.

There are some pretty easy geo-political cards to trade to get the table back to friendly relations.
A new administration makes "concessions" to the Russians about abandoning SDI, or at the very least, installations in Poland, in return for agreements on Iran.

We stand down on the Ukraine entering NATO in return for agreements on Azerbaijan, or something else of interest to us.

We encourage the reunification of Beloruss (the area north of Ukraine and east of Poland) with Russia (which both parties are having discussions about, as Beloruss is the most iridentist former Soviet republic) for other guarantees about Ukraine/Poland.

It is foolish to think we can make some sort of philosophical Maginot Line around the Ukraine, and we should tread carefully there. It's as dumb as sticking a "Free Tibet" bumper sticker on your car and expecting China to change.

[DurangoSteve]

Helio,

You offer an interesting perspective on the Georgia situation. But please don't smack us lowly folk upside the head. That would be terribly annoying.

Heightening the "crisis" is absolutely in the interest of Bush/McCain. Obama's greatest perceived weakness is foreign affairs, as it is McCain's greatest perceived strength. Bush/McCain need the Georgia situation to stay alive so McCain can pull out his war medals and polish them in public. Bush has sent a US military vessel to the Black Sea and is sending $5.75 million dollars in aid to Georgia.

Bush/Cheney (at the very least) encouraged Shakisvili enough that he decided to stick a finger in Putin's eye. The combination of arrogance and stupidity is kinda breathtaking.

Meanwhile, I find the "timing" of this whole "episode" extremely suspicious. We are, afterall, in the midst of a contentious general election season. Nothing happens by chance in the corridors of power, be they in Washington or Moscow.

[marko]

Good article about conflict... Helio turned me on to this website.

The Russo-Georgian War and the Balance of Power | Stratfor

excerpt from article:

The Mystery Behind the Georgian Invasion

In this simple chronicle, there is something quite mysterious: Why did the Georgians choose to invade South Ossetia on Thursday night? There had been a great deal of shelling by the South Ossetians of Georgian villages for the previous three nights, but while possibly more intense than usual, artillery exchanges were routine. The Georgians might not have fought well, but they committed fairly substantial forces that must have taken at the very least several days to deploy and supply. Georgia’s move was deliberate.
The United States is Georgia’s closest ally. It maintained about 130 military advisers in Georgia, along with civilian advisers, contractors involved in all aspects of the Georgian government and people doing business in Georgia. It is inconceivable that the Americans were unaware of Georgia’s mobilization and intentions. It is also inconceivable that the Americans were unaware that the Russians had deployed substantial forces on the South Ossetian frontier. U.S. technical intelligence, from satellite imagery and signals intelligence to unmanned aerial vehicles, could not miss the fact that thousands of Russian troops were moving to forward positions. The Russians clearly knew the Georgians were ready to move. How could the United States not be aware of the Russians? Indeed, given the posture of Russian troops, how could intelligence analysts have missed the possibility that the Russians had laid a trap, hoping for a Georgian invasion to justify its own counterattack?
It is very difficult to imagine that the Georgians launched their attack against U.S. wishes. The Georgians rely on the United States, and they were in no position to defy it. This leaves two possibilities. The first is a massive breakdown in intelligence, in which the United States either was unaware of the existence of Russian forces, or knew of the Russian forces but — along with the Georgians — miscalculated Russia’s intentions. The second is that the United States, along with other countries, has viewed Russia through the prism of the 1990s, when the Russian military was in shambles and the Russian government was paralyzed. The United States has not seen Russia make a decisive military move beyond its borders since the Afghan war of the 1970s-1980s. The Russians had systematically avoided such moves for years. The United States had assumed that the Russians would not risk the consequences of an invasion.
If this was the case, then it points to the central reality of this situation: The Russians had changed dramatically, along with the balance of power in the region. They welcomed the opportunity to drive home the new reality, which was that they could invade Georgia and the United States and Europe could not respond. As for risk, they did not view the invasion as risky. Militarily, there was no counter. Economically, Russia is an energy exporter doing quite well — indeed, the Europeans need Russian energy even more than the Russians need to sell it to them. Politically, as we shall see, the Americans needed the Russians more than the Russians needed the Americans. Moscow’s calculus was that this was the moment to strike. The Russians had been building up to it for months, as we have discussed, and they struck.

[heliodorus04]

On that count, Marko, I'm going with the Occam's Razor explanation:
This administration is STUPID, and simply ignored evidence of the Russian buildup and Putin's desire to make a very brief demonstration of power.

One thing I do NOT buy is that the Russian military is now on par with Western European nations such as Britain and Germany (let alone the US). Their equipment is better, their doctrine is better, but their training is pretty woefully lacking.

I've heard rumor that the Russian cruiser, practically the flagship of the Black Sea fleet, Moskva (Moscow) was hit by a Georgian missile boat with technology that is 30 to 40 years old...

Also heard Israeli missiles in Georgian hands did a number on Russian tanks (till they ran out of the few they had).

Militarily, Georgia actually lived to fight another day. Casualties were light for both sides, militarily (Civilians was disproportionate, if you'll pardon my seeming indifference, which I'm not).