Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-31-2008   #11
raft3plus's Avatar
Grand Dysfunction, West Slope, Colorado
Paddling Since: 1995
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 137
Reminder on data... consume with your own adjustments!

Quite impressed with everyone's understanding of economic behavior and principles.

Reminder that national (federal) data has been skewed the last 10+ years from being politicized. The unemployment moving average was introduced, then shortened, M3 removed... economic indicators were changed, by massaging some of their variables to allow the presentation of progress.

IMO, local unemployment figures are usually more accurate because the local pool is less of an approximation (rather than census over the whole for feds).

Additionally account for the effects of the 'Plunge Protection Team'; It's officially called the president's Working Group on Financial Markets. They manipulate the markets to keep them from crashing, uh, for the benefit of ...umm, yeah, the bankers and 'them'! ?? (Interesting note of their activities, nice example but dated.. FSU Editorial: "The 'Plunge Protection Team' Working Overtime" by Gary Dorsch 08/09/2007)

In sum, know your basic economic principles, adjust for skewed data, offset PPT activities, guesstimate derivative market activity (good luck with that one), sprinkle with CEO morality and ta-da you have a good shot at seeing how things *really* are. .. at least in the 51 percentile of being on track.

Kinda crappy is therefore the outlook in my overall guesstimation and thankfully almost everyone is seeing it too. Truth is rumored to be stranger than fiction afterall.

raft3plus is offline   Reply With Quote

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off

Similar Threads
Topic Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
think we will have any runoff from this storm? benrodda Whitewater Kayaking 13 10-29-2006 11:45 AM
Anyone get out in the aftermath of the storm? Mike Harvey Winter Buzz 1 10-11-2005 03:29 PM
Winter Storm Watch in effect! A vigorous storm is expected kayaker Whitewater Kayaking 0 10-08-2005 05:41 PM
The perfect form huckit21 Whitewater Kayaking 1 07-01-2004 06:50 PM

» Classified Ads
2014 KVI

posted by junedog

For Sale is a 2014 KVI B14R with the 3 person fishing...

2016 Demo Boardworks...

posted by 4CRS

Used 2016 Boardworks Shubu 10'6 Inflatable stand up paddle...

Maravia 14 x 22 Cataraft...

posted by Music

2016 Maravia Custom Built 14 x 22 Cat... MEEEOOOWWW!! I...

Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

Our Communities

Our communities encompass many different hobbies and interests, but each one is built on friendly, intelligent membership.

» More about our Communities

Automotive Communities

Our Automotive communities encompass many different makes and models. From U.S. domestics to European Saloons.

» More about our Automotive Communities

Marine Communities

Our Marine websites focus on Cruising and Sailing Vessels, including forums and the largest cruising Wiki project on the web today.

» More about our Marine Communities

Copyright 2002-2012 Social Knowledge, LLC All Rights Reserved.

All times are GMT -6. The time now is 11:26 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2016, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.