Election 08 thread No. 2

[heliodorus04]

If you are hoping for a Democratic president next election, last night should deflate your ego a good deal.

The Democrats are in an internicine war. I admit I'm on the outside of it looking in, since I haven't been a democrat in 16 years, but to me, it looks like racism is playing a bigger deal than i wish it were. Hispanics and poor rural whites aren't voting for Obama. And the 60+ crowd is voting overwhelmingly Clinton.

I'm personally very anti-Clinton. Even though I think she'd do a better job than Bush, I won't vote for her because over the course of this campaign, I've remember just how sleazy and corrupt to power the Clinton machine is. They have no morals where access to power is concerned.

But I give her campaign credit for a couple of moves of genius. If you haven't seen the "3 a.m." campaign ad of hers, it plays extremely well to people with grandkids. Oh, and by the way, it's a page out of the Karl Rove playbook in that it plays on people's fears...

The other thing Clinton did well was change the media message by practicing some self-depricating humor. Her appearance on Saturday Night Live was excellent, and her appearance on the Daily Show was also good. And she has masterfully gotten the media to be more critical and questioning of Obama (and that is a necessary evil for Obama given what the Republicans will do to him in the Fall if he's the nominee).

Clinton can now say that she's won most, certainly more, of the "big delegate" states that count.
New Jersey
New York
California
Texas
Ohio
Michigan*
Florida*

For those of you who wish the electoral college would go away, take a look at those states on that list. Those are the only states you need to win (albeit big) to win the popular vote in this country. So just as an aside: Are those the only states you want to count when it comes to picking our president?

Clinton can now say that she can dominate big states electorally, and Obama can't get poor whites and hispanics to vote for him. Clinton can, and likely will, take this to the convention in August. So 2 months before the general election, the Democrats are going to have 1968 again, and there's going to be a war in the party about which candidate to go with. And whichever side loses is going to be very very angry about it. And I predict the angry voters either will not vote, or will vote for McCain in the general.

Moreover, the democrats are going to spend all the fabulous amounts of money they've raised fighting each other. John McCain can quietly start soothing the wounds in the Republican side, raise money and not spend much, all while paying attention to which negative ads are working against which candidate, letting them cut and bruise each other while he spends nothing in the process.

This is the wet dream of the Republican party. The only thing that could be better for them is if Hillary gets the nomination...

After 8 years of George Bush's incompetence, it's starting to play out that the Republicans are going to look like the ones who have their act together come November.

[Livingston]

Either Hillary or Obama would do a good job in my opinion. Was hoping for Edwards, now Obama. For me, it is the corporate IOUs that set the remaining candidates apart.

If it goes all the way to Denver and Hillary wins, Obama becomes VP, problem solved.

-d

[Livingston]

Stop trying to make it so hard on us. Spell your fancy words correctly, I had no idea what internecine (for others like me; adjective: deadly, marked ro slauter/ conflict within) meant.

I believe it is a false generalization that if you are for the Dem's who looses you wouldn't vote for the other. It could be the case for a few, but it has got to be the minority. I think the hatred of Bush, his policies (which McCain will continue) and his party overshadows the infighting we are seeing.

-d

[gh]

Helio, Bush is endorsing McCain today. Is that really what you want?

[heliodorus04]

Well, with regard to Obama, obviously he has a great deal of support among African-American voters. Obama also has the delegate lead, and as of the present, the popular vote lead. I was just reading some mathemtical analysis: Obama needs to win 77 percent of remaining pledged delegates to outright win the nomination, Hillary needs to win 97 percent. Obviously it's impossible for Hillary to win that high a percentage, and it's nearly impossible for Obama to win that high a percentage. The result: Divided convention.

The next issue will be popular vote: Who has it? If Obama has both the pledged delegate lead, and the popular vote, but somehow Hillary's backroom deals get her the nomination, you can fairly well bet that the vast majority of African Americans stay home this election: Advantage Republicans.

If Hillary has the popular vote edge, but Obama has the pledged delegate lead, the brokered convention comes down to backroom deals, which probably benefit Hillary as the "establishment familiarity". What happens in the general is anyone's guess.

It is not going to take much for McCain's candidacy to win over Independents if Hillary is the nominee. And the only "dirt" going against Clinton right now is historical from her husband's administration. Wait till the Republicans start examining how Bill has made his fortune since leaving office. There's a reason Hillary is not releasing tax returns: She's in deep with some pretty odd figures...

As for me and McCain, there's just no way I'll vote for Clinton, and I'm not going to sit this election out. Yes, I'll vote for McCain. No, he won't stop the war. But I trust him, and I don't trust Hillary. Period.

[TakemetotheRiver]

This whole post saddens me Helio. I was afraid that race would play a bigger role than gender in this election and it seems to be playing out that way. It has also been clear since the beginning that Obama was favored by the more educated of the electorate. Unfortunately, the demographic you mention here is (generally speaking) not a widely educated one. In fact, this really goes to show how few Americans are adequately educated- apparently not enough.

It adds insult to injury to know that Clinton is winning in a very "Republican" way, in my view. Just as the wealthy politicians are able to appeal to the blue collar worker with promises of the opportunities available when supporting the Republican party, Clinton (Ms. 51%) is appealing to our sense of humor in an effort to seem more accessible to the "little people" with appearances on the Daily Show and Saturday Night Live. As has been mentioned, we love our entertainment, and the more mindless, the better. (Don't get me wrong, I love both shows.)

Having said that, it would still be a mistake to vote for McCain if Hillary gets the nomination. This is not a case of the lesser of two evils. It's a case of asking for more of the same or asking for change. We pretty much all want change at this point and the only way that has even a possibility of happening is with a Democratic president.

Originally Posted by heliodorus04

The Democrats are in an internicine war. I admit I'm on the outside of it looking in, since I haven't been a democrat in 16 years, but to me, it looks like racism is playing a bigger deal than i wish it were. Hispanics and poor rural whites aren't voting for Obama. And the 60+ crowd is voting overwhelmingly Clinton.

[rwhyman]

Well, I guess if you would vote for more of the same, your one more persons ramblings I don't need to read anymore. Maybe you can get a job with Fox News.

Originally Posted by heliodorus04

As for me and McCain, there's just no way I'll vote for Clinton, and I'm not going to sit this election out. Yes, I'll vote for McCain. No, he won't stop the war. But I trust him, and I don't trust Hillary. Period.

[Roy]

Originally Posted by heliodorus04

Clinton can now say that she's won most, certainly more, of the "big delegate" states that count.

I don't think that has any bearing on electability in the general election at all. Does anybody really believe New York, New Jersey, California, etc. won't vote Obama over McCain? Or that Texas will vote for either Dem candidate?

Those aren't the states that will flip it one way or another. It's places like Colorado, Missouri, and yes, Ohio that will swing it. And Obama's done pretty well in most of those states.

[gh]

Helio, I hope that the supreme court that McCain helps build will take a freedom away from you, for your own good of course, that you care about someday. He will have to appoint conservatives to the high court that will reverse Roe v Wade or he will lose his base and probably other freedoms that you might care about. Forget about making a phone call without big brother listening in or needing a warrant to enter your home cause you could be a terrorist. I hope that we are paddling together that day so that I can say I told you so.

[heliodorus04]

Originally Posted by rwhyman

Well, I guess if you would vote for more of the same, your one more persons ramblings I don't need to read anymore. Maybe you can get a job with Fox News.

I've always been a person whose ramblings you don't need to read, dude

And Fox News is the official "after-porn" employment agency for adult film actresses over the age of 30. I do have a journalism degree, after all. There's hope for me yet!

I think a lot of lifelong Democrats overlook the corruption of the Clintons. It's strange to me how the last 8 years retroactively made me approve of the Clinton administration... As Bush went more and more nuts on spending and deficits, I started to see Clinton as a good domestic policy president (with no major blunders in foreign policy).

But as Hillary started losing, and I read more about the backroom scheming going on by both Clintons and their machine, and I started reading from their advocates (who had been relatively silent for 8 years) I started to remember that they play the game of personal destruction, and will do anything whatsoever to hold on to power.

I'll get more familiar with McCain in coming months, but the guy does have a streak of integrity from what I know now. He's pretty moderate with regard to the environment. He used to be anti-torture, and I'll not support him if he doesn't prohibit torture by any US agency (or tacit approval such as allowing us to hand prisoners over to Syria and so forth). I may have to write in Obama's name on my ballot come November.

But bear this in mind on the Democrat side: Hillary cannot overtake Obama on state (pledged) delegates. She has to rely on backroom deals and a brokered convention to get the election. If she manages to eek out the popular vote (nationwide) she has a legitimate moral claim, I think. But if she has neither the delegate lead (prior to superdelegates) nor the popular vote, and she chooses to divide her party in the hopes that she can negotiate deals and cast aside both of those votes, (which I predict she definitely would do even without winning the popular vote) then she's demonstrating that she's every bit as craven as Bush.

And if you vote for that, I don't know what to tell ya...

McCain at least got his nomination the honest way. And one more thing: McCain is not in the pocket of the Religious Right, which is why he's got such tepid support from the Republican party as it now stands.