This will not replace hard data close to put in but for your curiosity needs check out:
Weak El Niño for 2012 – 2013 Winter
Note how their September prediction produced some reasonably accurate generalities. "Merging Branches Can Produce Big Eastern Storms
" for instance.
Normal in a seasonal forecast isn't what the average weather is for any date. For slightly better results try normal being what is average for the weather phenomenon we are in or going into. El Nino and La Nina have established track records.
.... surface water temperatures over such a large body of water, (ENSO) - where the El Niño Southern Oscillation occurs, have a profound effect on weather patterns around the globe, by causing a shift in the strength and position of the storm tracks around the Earth.
This will not tell you what the CF will be on a given day but might help a little with option B planning.
I saw earlier where someone had advised about the lack of snow down lower being a concern, where there weren't very many or any Snow tell stations at all. That is a very good point where the data can be poor and is certainly more appropriate to take into consideration than El Nino best guesses. Some guy in Idaho pointing out the weak snow pack down low is worth listening to.
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With so many permits to be drawn and you take what you get this is all just winter chatter for now. In Oregon the peak average snowpack doesn't happen usually until early April and who's to say what the spring rains will bring?
Some humor for the day:
The different drought indices can be of merit because low snow pack down low can be slightly compensated for if decent rains have been happening there and made for good soil moistures. However, when we're in a droughtish condition think about that low snowpack down low being a bigger negative. The spring rains will be soaked up by the dry soil first is what the Drought Monitor is suggesting, river flows be damed. (pun intended cause I didn't want to use a bad word).