I don't think the replies are meant to be mean. It is a serious bit of floating. If you are up for an adventure then have fun.
I regularly solo the MF in August - no big deal. Being the first trip down of the year has inherent danger. Good luck.
To maximize you chances of success: You should probably join the idahowhitewater yahoo group. lots of good info and usually reports from locals on conditions/hazards/early attempts.
Here's a post from 2008:
Note in 2008 there was 24 inches of water in the snowpack. this year there is 36 or something like that.
> >Our group put in at Marsh on Friday March 23red, took off at Carrey
> Creek on Friday the 30th. Great trip. Kinda rainy several days.
> We also had our adventures in Velvet. I have run it high many times
> and always looked over and was glad I wasn't in that nasty looking
> trench. This time I got to experience Velvet's violence.
> I got to close to the rock and it pinned my oar so I couldn't get my
> angle. Knowing I was doomed I lined up backwards and stroked with
> my might into the hole - thinking that I didn't have much chance
> a small cat in that hole. I was right. The flip instantly stripped
> both oars out of my hands and slammed me on the upstream wall of the
> hole with enough power to knock the air out of me. Spent some time
> the bottom - enough time for three boats to get through the rapid.
> think it was really really violent down there - kinda dark also.
> I popped up I was really glad to get a breath of air.
> While I was down under my 12.5 ft elf shoe was apparently giving
> a show; doing flips, pirouettes, and skittering back and forth in
> trench. Janice Delaney missed the pull also and as she went through
> the hole my boat flipped up onto the front of her cat and she was
> to deliver my boat to me up right - what a crew. With my boat out
> the hole the group was looking around for me when I bobbed to the
> surface. Rescue was prompt and we proceeded to have a great trip.
> > Just got off the SF at 6'. About 30-45 minutes from put in at
> > Marsh Bridge the river splits into 2 channels. The one on the
> > has large tree with large branches going down into the water. Do
> > take this, it is impassible and the one on the right has a log
> > away across the channel & at 6' the water is barely going over
> > Stay left in this channel. There were a couple of rafts that
> > the bottoms going over it.
> > Dagger was the easiest of all rapids to run, quick run down left
> > Velvet at 6' flips about 2 out of 4. If you can pull left which
> > nearly impossible you will be out of danger. Our 1st raft
> > make the left and got flipped and the boater got his life jacket
> > snagged under the tube on the frame and had to be cut loose by
> > passenger which saved his life & normally he rides alone. He
> > with in inches and seconds of drowning. I was behind him and &
> > couldn't make the left side & ended going right down the middle
> > my 16' cat. I made it to the top & was sucked back down & caught
> > good push and made it over the top & was able to pull the
> > onto my boat & catch his upside down raft. The guy behind me was
> > thrown clear of his 16' cat & was able to swim to shore where the
> > passenger of the first raft was able to help him to shore. His
> > ended up 20 miles down river near Thompson creek, it never
> > Our fourth raft was able to make the left side with the help of
> > paddlers and he picked up the 2 on shore. It took a Z drag to
> > the raft back over & just before dark we went through Power House
> > camped just around the corner.
> > A lady in another party was thrown off & while under the raft was
> > in the eye with something & cut it pretty bad. I saw her at
> > Creek & she was black and blue across the eyes & nose.
> > Take extra oars & locks, lots of boater were losing or breaking
> > theirs.
Here's a blog entry from a guy who ran an early season packraft trip.
Rapids, Wolves, and Winter @ Backpacking Light