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Old 05-19-2011   #1
Carbondale, Colorado
Paddling Since: 2007
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 262
Unpredictable Runoff - Another Interesting Aspen Times Article

All this talk keeps me thinking about my June 17 MFoS launch even though different watershed even though a few states away!

Unpredictable runoff has officials planning for worst, hoping for best | AspenTimes.com

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Old 05-19-2011   #2
Dipshit with the most.
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Bellevue, Idaho
Paddling Since: 1991
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 2,497
What are you thinking?? That it will be awesome?

It will.

Run off on the Middle Fork of the Salmon.

But if you are really trying to nerve yourself out then maybe you should cancel now while you won't be penalized.

As I mentioned a couple of places, we are almost exactly on par with 2009 in terms of SWE ( stored energy of the water at a couple of key places) and the Salmon drainages are running 120 to 145 percent of normal. In the southern end of the drainage (where the MF starts) it is closer to the 120%. Murphs and Velvet have the potential to kick your ass at any flow we have this year mid June. Look at the streamflow vs runoff charts that have been posted, it's no lie. Five feet really isn't that different from 6 or 6.5. Beyond that it changes a bit, but you will almost certainly be on the down side of the peak by 10 days or more. And...it's warming up this weekend and next week. Look for another increase in flow over the weekend and week to correspond.

Relax. It will be a blast.

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Old 05-19-2011   #3
Carbondale, Colorado
Paddling Since: 2007
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 262
Thanks Carvedog!

We will not be cancelling! I am getting psyched but also nervous but then again that's how I get with almost any run rated III+ and above. That is also why I love whitewater rafting, kayaking, etc. That thought in the back of the mind that fecal matter could hit the oscillating device at any time keeps the river activities exciting! When you make it alive it truly makes you feel ALIVE!

Thanks for your post, it keeps me confident!
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Old 05-20-2011   #4
Dipshit with the most.
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Bellevue, Idaho
Paddling Since: 1991
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 2,497
Sawtooth Camera: Live webcam from Stanley, Idaho. Views of the Sawtooth Mountain Range.

If you look at this and toggle back and forth ( little buttons on lower right) a bit you can see what the snow looks like in Stanley. I am shocked that is is actually looking a lot like mid May of last year. On the weekly view you can jump from May 14, 2011 to May 01, 2010.

Granted we have more snow up high but don't know if we will get the foot of snow or so that fell on May 22nd of last year that fueled the huge peak first week of June.

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