I received this information yesterday:
RUNOFF GUSHER LIKELY ON BLUE, EAGLE AND YAMPA-WHITE: (Updated 5/15/2006)
May 15 to May 21: Warm, dry air will dominate the states weather west of the Divide through this week. As a result temperatures will average well above average from valley floors to mountain tops. The bottom line: tributaries of major rivers will see a healthy boost in local runoff and could produce minor flooding issues by mid-week.
Our mid-May heat wave is just in its infancy. A dominating ridge of very warm air has begun to build over the Western United States this past weekend. Warm, dry weather will dominate until about May 24-26; here comes the runoff! Temperatures will be 5-10F above average except for May 17-18 as a mass of Pacific moisture passes with showers and thunderstorms at the mid-week point. The week will end on a sizzling note with temperatures likely to reach to near 90F on valley floors.
The tributaries that appear to pose the greatest threat are the Ten Mile, Upper Blue, Swan and Snake which could lead to specific minor flooding issues this week. Similar issues abound on the tributaries of the Eagle River and the Yampa-White. While main stem rivers will show a gradual rise reaching their peaks next week, the tributaries will face their own peak this week. Be ready!
Weekly Flood Threat table: Warm temperatures all week will cause Summit County tributaries upstream of Breckenridge to run full to out of banks at times by mid-week. Timing of weather disturbances that will briefly cloud the skies is tough but be ready for tributary flooding issues to surface by mid-week and last into weekend.
Our long range outlook shows a very unstable Pacific storm track (the thick blue arrow) that could bring both a 3-5 day heat wave with temperatures in the 80s to the high country May 20-24 and a then wet Pacific storm for the Memorial Day weekend, May 26-30. The warm weather could hasten another round of mountain snowmelt.
A signal that is gathering strength is for a protracted stormy period to follow the heat wave and increase the threat of a rain event on snowmelt swollen streams May 28 to June 3. The threat of strong thunderstorm rainfall along the Front Range would also be significantly increased during this time period.
Okay we are getting ahead of ourselves and an outlook at this time of year is likely to change. Due to the expected but still evolving changes in the Pacific storm track our confidence in this long range outlook is still on the low side but heading toward more confidence.