Originally Posted by Randaddy
The snow is huge, but it's been around and is consolidated. I think that last year's flood was due to dust on the snowpack and fresh snow, which hadn't turned to ice yet.
Yes, the snowpack is huge.... likely close to a 100 year event... but, the fact that the snow is older and more consolidated just means there is more water content, which will translate to more water coming down the canyon (provided we don't get a month of drying winds up there).
Last year's peaks MAY have had a little to do with the dust (it was more prominent further south), but they had a LOT to do with the cool weather we got late May holding the melt back... then the warm temps that followed.
The crux to getting flows going is a snowpack that is no longer frozen and several days without a snow surface freeze. Peak pretty much occurs when there is visibly not much left to melt. Of course rain on snow up high will spark it up pretty fast (and is the main concern for flooding below the canyon).
Also, although pretty minor, fresh snow will hold the melt back a bit as it reflects more of the sun's energy (opposite effect to older snow with dust on the surface).
Whether we get above 6ft is going to depend the the weather we get. However, if ever there is a year that we might predict 6+ft, this is it.
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