Pearce Ferry is super mellow. The most exciting thing is the river is back cutting into the sandbank, so the trail walks up the sand directly over the back cut!
When the sand bank gives way it's going to be massive and of course dangerous for whoever is on it.
Looking back at the old historical data Lake Mead Water Database
Lake Meade will take awhile(50 years?) to go up enough for the river to find a new channel, if that is even possible.
I would guess for a new channel to be cut naturally the lake would have to go up to 2002 levels where we could takeout at the old Pearce Ferry Ramp High and dry now. Next years of silt would have to fill in the current river channel higher than the current silt level.
Looking at old data avg by year Lake Mead Water Database
the lake was filled to 56%(current approx level) relatively quickly from 1935 to 1940. Generally from that period(1940-2012) on the silt was be transported down and deposited from Sandy Point(300m ish) to Seperation Rapid(240mish). During that time period we artificially accelerated the silt transport by the high flows, and fluctuations associated with peak power demand. As of recently we have associated peak power with peak silt loss! It seems LTMP is trying to reduce silt loss by getting away from these fluctuations and going to a steadier flow. Constant Flows.
Taking into account that Glen Canyon Dam was finished in the early sixties, and thus silt was greatly decreased it will take longer for silt to fill in relative to past inflows. The silt inflow we now have is LCR and Pariah relatively speaking.
On that day that silt fills the current river channel and rises up enough on the south side to welcome the riverbed to point north, the channel will be able to flow to it's original point 1/4 mile away. The bass are going to love all that tammies habitat!!