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Old 11-24-2015   #1
San Jose, CA, California
Paddling Since: 1998
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 433
Next Grand Canyon Cancellation Lottery?

Any bets on when the next one will be held?

I feel like the cancellation volume has been especially low this year. The last one was 10/15/2015. Not a single one in November as of yet.

They usually happen on Tuesday so maybe today will be the day?

buckmanriver is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-24-2015   #2
st2eelpot's Avatar
Professional Transient, See above.
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 310
I've never paid much attention to their regularity. I thought I read somewhere that they basically run the cancellation lotteries when someone in the office feels they have enough open slots to warrant running another one.

Does anyone know how they actually determine when to run them? Is there a formula somewhere?

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Old 11-24-2015   #3
Bellingham, Washington
Paddling Since: 1998
Join Date: Dec 2014
Posts: 20
If there's any rhyme or reason to their method, I sure can't discern it! Sometimes a cancellation lottery will be held for a launch date less than a week out (example: there was a lottery on 3/5/2015 for a 3/9/2015 launch!), sometimes it goes to a call in around two weeks before launch, and sometimes it doesn't get filled.

I agree with Buckmanriver that 2016 cancellation offerings seem particularly sparse so far. I thought for sure we'd have a lottery last week. Didn't happen. Thought we'd have one this week. Didn't happen. Good thing I don't have any money riding on this!

And when cancellation dates have come up in the past two lotteries (held on 6/23/2015 and 10/15/2015) there was not a single Feb date available and only a couple of March dates. Are cancellation rates going down all of a sudden or is the next lottery going to have a lot of dates? Seems kinda weird, but there's nothing to do but wait.
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