Originally Posted by Richard1
Life will be great! The water gods at the state are forecasting at 90% probability that the river will between 3.25' and 3.5'. A great level to float. Enough water to keep you off the rocks and not so much as to create huge laterals or holes. The water is steady and not pulsing. Not to say that there will be no flips or wraps but its not 6' or <2'. Launching same week. You will have a trip of a life time. I have floated the middle fork almost every year (including guiding a couple of seasons)at least once since 1988, this level is great! Look forward to it and have the time of your life!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Guys, guys - you need to know that a lot of these 'predictions' are just one computer fapping another one. Pretty sure the Noaa one is completely computer generated and has no basis in reality other than it is more responsive to generating storm related forecasts than general runoff. I have been watching the flows on USGS since around the mid 90s and been looking at the Noaa 'forecasts' for around 10 years. The Noaa forecasts are crap. Straight up.
Watch them and see what I mean. Just checked and it's calling for 5.2 by the end of the 7th. Once peak and Banner meltout have been reached it drops quite a bit quicker than that. Pretty sure it will be 4.5 or less by then. The parameters that have been programmed do not work well.
The state exceedance probabilities are much more accurate as they have been fine tuned over time by real people. Pretty sure that Ron A. works on this one quite a bit and he is good. He also gets out and does snow surveys and hikes around the back country a fair bit, as well as going rafting.