When looking at the Drought Monitor:
Think about soil moistures.
If the soil is dry then the spring rains, if any, will be soaked up by the ground first. River flows, including spring fed, come later.
There are different ways to measure drought.
One is soil moisture and it is measured by the Keetch-Byram Drought Index.
ndex = 0 - 200: Soil moisture and large class fuel moistures are high and do not contribute much to fire intensity. Typical of spring dormant season following winter precipitation.
KBDI = 200 - 400: Typical of late spring, early growing season. Lower litter and duff layers are drying and beginning to contribute to fire intensity.
KBDI = 400 - 600: Typical of late summer, early fall. Lower litter and duff layers actively contribute to fire intensity and will burn actively.
KBDI = 600 - 800: Often associated with more severe drought with increased wildfire occurrence. Intense, deep burning fires with significant downwind spotting can be expected. Live fuels can also be expected to burn actively at these levels.
Much of Colorado is typical or even OK.
It could be worse.
Your cfm may vary.