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Old 03-07-2013   #41
tango's Avatar
Denver, Colorado
Paddling Since: 2003
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Originally Posted by mania View Post
found this informative map


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Old 03-08-2013   #42
loveland, Colorado
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 317

Not to jump on the pessimistic bandwagon but after flying to phoenix yesterday and back the Collegiates do look horribly dry. The west side has more visible snow but the east side is thin at best south of Yale. Further south below BV towards Salida is most concerning as it looks like 'brown town'. However, the south central to southeast part of CO looked much better for snow coverage. I was quite surprised by the amount of snow just north and around the Salt River basin. Appears the runoff has begun in earnest as that Salt reservoir is full to the brim.

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Old 03-19-2013   #43
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West of Boulder, Colorado
Paddling Since: 1998
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 643
From Joel Gratz, somewhat encouraging:

Long range:
"No details, but it does look like we'll have a good chance for storms from late March through early April. This doesn't mean it'll snow all the time or that we'll avoid a few days of warm sunny weather, because that's inevitable. I'm just pointing out that we shouldn't see weeks of snowless weather like we did last spring, and continued storms is good for snow coverage on the slopes and more importantly to beef up the snowpack for the spring runoff. We're at about 80% of average statewide and this typically peaks around April 10-15th before melting takes over and the snowpack sees a rapid decline."

After last years no snow spring, this is some welcome news. Let hope the snow goes right through April and into May!

In the statewide map below, we are about to hit 100% of last year with a month of snow to go hopefully. I know we are not going to hit overall average, but....

Loveland basin is at 80% of snow water equivelent, not sure where we were last year for loveland basin? Just trying to be optimisitic and hope it is better then last season.
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Old 03-19-2013   #44
adgeiser's Avatar
Denver,, exhaustion
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 578
Al, I'm with you on the optimism thing but... The snowtel map I just looked at shows the south platte basin at 68%, state wide @ 77% ( largely d/t the SW portion of the state.

But yes keep it coming.
Boat with you soon
"We should restore the practice of dueling. It might improve manners around here" -Edward Abbey
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Old 03-19-2013   #45
Redmond, Oregon
Paddling Since: 1973
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Originally Posted by jmack View Post
The issue with worrying is that it doesn't actually help. What does help is paddling all of the good runs in Colorado that have water even in dry years.
Instead of worrying do what he said and plan.

when April fools comes around for the update.
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Old 03-19-2013   #46
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BZN, Montana
Paddling Since: 2008
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Ouch. Bozeman area is green. We've got some goods and sort of on the way to even more goods in ID. Give a shout if that's your game plan.
The sunshine walked beside her
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Old 03-19-2013   #47
Helena, Montana
Paddling Since: 1976
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I've never seen the Smith floatable in a raft after middle of July
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Old 03-20-2013   #48
Buena Vista, Colorado
Paddling Since: 1976
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 55
The West is in a drought cycle for sure. Some drainages are better off than others. I'm naturally , most concerned about the upper Ark (cause I live here). So the graph shows us just over 2002 but still behind 2012. The minimum recorded was the first half of 1981 and the last half of 2002. We are at a really critical point. If the current trend continues, we'll be well below last year. If Joel's forecast holds true for the upper Ark, we might be ok.

(go here and select 2013, 2012, 2002, average and minimum t see what I mean. Not sure how to post that image--maybe someone can help.,)

One question i have about this data is the snotel sites reporting. For the upper Ark, Monarch and all the stuff that drains below the South Arkansas is irrelevant. Important for the Gorge, but not Pine Creek, Numbers, Browns, etc. Which of these are factored into the basin totals and which are relevant for which parts of the river? I have my guess but you have to drill down a little to get the real picture.

APISHAPA (e of alimosa)
BRUMLEY yes same as indy?
GLEN COVE teller co. e of cospgs
HAYDEN PASS Saguache co
PORPHYRY CREEK Gunnison co but relevant
SOUTH COLONY custer county south
WHISKEY CK drains into S tributary of ark
Rough And Tumble

Michigan Creek
Porphyry Creek
Buckskin Joe
Monarch Mounta...
Hayden Pass
Saint Elmo
Ski Cooper Ski...
Buena Vista
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Old 03-20-2013   #49
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Buena Vista, Colorado
Paddling Since: 2005
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 4,207
91% of last year now. Tonight's storm will put us near or over last year. If it continues to snow for at least a couple more storms we are likely to see more water in the Ark than last year, even though the reservoir storage is lower. They will have to move the runoff downstream almost immediately to holder's of senior rights. Plus word is that the upper Fryingpan and upper Roaring Fork are near 100% of average and the powers that be anticipate having all 10,000 acre ft available for the VFMP.... that means more water in July than last season.

The only sites that matter to Upper Ark flows are Brumely, Freemont, Ski Cooper, and Saint Elmo. The site the Fry-Ark managers look at to predict imports is Ivanhoe.

Saint Elmo only needs to be considered if your looking at it from a Browns Canyon perspective, otherwise you can leave it out.

I use photobucket to share images on forums.
GARNA’s mission is to foster stewardship of the resources of the greater Arkansas River region through education, volunteerism and experiences.
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Old 03-20-2013   #50
Redmond, Oregon
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Originally Posted by zipbak View Post
(go here and select 2013, 2012, 2002, average and minimum t see what I mean. Not sure how to post that image--maybe someone can help.,)

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