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Old 06-19-2008   #1
Brooklyn Park, Minnesota
Paddling Since: 2006
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 1
How long will the Ark stay high?

Hey all,

I'm a MN boater looking for some beta on how long the Ark will stay above 2k?



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Old 06-19-2008   #2
jacy's Avatar
Colorado Springs, Colorado
Paddling Since: 2005
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 29
It's still climbing...

Anyone want to put money on this?

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Old 06-19-2008   #3
Andy H.'s Avatar
Wheat Ridge, Colorado
Paddling Since: 1995
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 2,910
Anyone want to put money on this?
DanOrion's going to do a Van Genuchen multi-Gaussian Triple Krauskopf regression analysis factoring in weather, 60 years of previous hydrographs and the cost of gasoline in Chaffee County and take all our money on this one...
Nothing in the world is more yielding and gentle than water. Yet it has no equal for conquering the resistant and tough. The flexible can overcome the unbending; the soft can overcome the hard. - Lao Tse
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Old 06-19-2008   #4
Self-Aggrandizing jackass
heliodorus04's Avatar
The Ranch, Colorado
Paddling Since: 04
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 1,134
Which part of the Ark?
Numbers to BV
BV to Salida
Salida to Gorge?
"self-aggrandizing jackass" - it says it right on the label
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Old 06-19-2008   #5
CUBuffskier's Avatar
Erie, Colorado
Paddling Since: 2005
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 237
hope for a long time
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Old 06-19-2008   #6
Snowhere's Avatar
Buena Vista, Colorado
Paddling Since: 93
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 844
Um... Until the snow melts! And since it was hot the last couple of days, it will be any day now. But wait, it is cold today so let's extend the forcast a few more days.

In all seriousness, there is still plenty of snow up high so it will be a while, but no one can tell how long. If it gets hot for a few weeks it will go fast, if it stays cool it will be a long while. most likely it will be somewheres in-between.
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Old 06-19-2008   #7
Ed Hansen's Avatar
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 331
Magic 8-ball says.....

Signs point to yes.

So there you have it.

A long season.

2K+ till August.

Good day sir.

I said Good Day!
"So in two seconds, away we went, a sliding down the river, and it did seem so good to be free again and all by ourselves on the big river and nobody to bother us." -Mark Twain (The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn)
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Old 06-19-2008   #8
Roy's Avatar
Denver, Colorado
Paddling Since: 1993
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 682
Twin Lakes is only at 44% of capacity. For whatever reason, they've been drawing it down, but that can't go on forever...
I've a suggestion to keep you all occupied...learn to swim!
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Old 06-19-2008   #9
DanOrion's Avatar
Indian Hills, Colorado
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 1,448
Flows will be strong for quite a while, as the Ark will be benefiting from both Ark drainage and Roaring Fork flows via the Fry-Ark project. As I understand it, Southeastern Plans to max out Fry-Ark this year at 120k af. I don't believe all of this will flow all the way down the Ark, but much will. For fun, let's say that 75% of 120k af is added to the natural Ark flow over 90 days. (That was fun!) That's an extra 500 cfs in the river over natural conditions (just as a for example).

Given uncertianty regarding trans-basin diversion and reservoir operations, on top of temporal shifts in snow melt and precipitation, changes snow aspect loading it's premature to complete a Van Genuchen multi-Gaussian Triple Krauskopf regression analysis.

Instead I'll just say that it's a hell of a good year for the Ark and it will cost an arm and a leg in gas to drive there from my humble front-range abode.

I'll leave you with a final thought:

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