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Old 02-07-2007   #1
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 883
GC Adaptive Management for Waiting List Members

GCNP has updated its Lottery FAQ, to include information on how the
adaptive management program will be used to help people who remain
from the old waiting list system. This update also includes a table
that provides information on the number of people remaining from the
waiting list.

Because I copied the rest of this post from the FAQ in PDF format,
there was some trouble with the table about adaptive management. If
you are unable to view it properly, it was drawn from page 12 in the
following link

Please allow me an editorial comment. The system described below
appears to assure that waiting list people will not wait for a trip
substantially longer under the new system than they would have under
the old system. And they will have enhanced (tripled) lottery points
to further their chances if they want to stay in the lottery instead
of pre-schedule. This seems to me to be a very clear demonstration of
the Park's commitment to fairness and equity.



What happened to the people from the old waitlist system?

While enacting the new system, we have tried to be fair to former
waitlist members. Under the old system we released approximately 240
noncommercial trips per year, and around 50 of these were winter
dates. People joined the waitlist to be in line to eventually get one
of these dates. Before starting the transition process, we projected
how long it would take for each of the 7,296 existing waitlist members
to reach the top portion of the waitlist and schedule a launch under
the old system, and we notified each member of our findings. Next, we
released 240 launch dates per year from 2007 through 2011 to waitlist
members (notice, this is the same number of launch dates as previously
released each year through the old system). Finally, for the remaining
waitlist members, we gave each a choice, they could leave the waitlist
and take a full refund of the waitlist fees they had paid us, or they
could leave the waitlist and accept extra chances in the lottery with
some added assurance. These extra chances are very much designed to
ensure most former waitlist members “win” through the lottery as soon
or sooner than they would have under the old system.

Explain this “added assurance.” How will the NPS step forward to help?

The "added assurance" is given solely to those individuals who
transferred from the waitlist choosing extra chances (instead of a
refund) and continue to have these extra chances. (Extra chances
expire when the former waitlist member wins a trip through the lottery
or participates on any part of a Grand Canyon Lees Ferry to Diamond
Creek noncommercial or commercial river trip.) If any of these
individuals do not win or participate on a trip (noncommercial or
commercial) as soon or sooner than our prediction for them under the
old waitlist system, we will step forward to help, giving the person a
one time option to choose either 1) to have their extra chances
tripled, or 2) to pre-schedule a trip ahead of the lottery by choosing
from a limited number of launch dates.

These former waitlist members will be given this assistance in the
year’s listed in the below chart. For instance, from February through
the end of April we will be contacting and working with the 249 people
who currently qualify for this assistance. Note, for future years we
expect the total number of people who qualify for this help to
decrease year after year as individuals participate on other trips and
win trips through the lottery.

2005 W/L Number Year for Years they Can Total
Assistance Preschedule




05#00001-05#00705 2007 2008-2012 249
05#00706-05#00915 2008 2009-2013 99
05#00916-05#01129 2009 2010-2014 101
05#01130-05#01358 2010 2011-2015 123
05#01359-05#01598 2012 2012-2016 136
05#01599-05#01842 2012 2013-2017 156
05#01843-05#02096 2013 2014-2018 153
05#02097-05#02365 2014 2015-2019 176
05#02366-05#02648 2015 2016-2020 185
05#02649-05#02945 2016 2017-2021 191
05#02946-05#03253 2017 2018-2022 211
05#03254-05#03576 2018 2019-2023 228
05#03577-05#03909 2019 2020-2024 227
05#03910-05#04255 2020 2021-2025 224
05#04256-05#04618 2021 2022-2026 257
05#04619-05#04990 2022 2023-2027 247
05#04991-05#05377 2023 2024-2028 279
05#05378-05#05781 2024 2025-2029 275
05#05782-05#06206 2025 2026-2030 297
05#06207-05#06648 2026 2027-2031 314
05#06649-05#07104 2027 2028-2032 316
05#07105-05#07296 2028 2029-2033 134

Exactly how many launch dates will be used for this purpose?

Many 2008 noncommercial launches were previously booked through
deferments, transition stage 1, and transition stage 2. The 2008
noncommercial calendar can be found at

Of the remaining launches listed on each year’s calendar, the maximum cumulative pre-scheduling of launch dates used for the above pre-scheduling will include:

From 2008 through 2011:

• 2 standard sized trips per week in January through March
• 1 standard and 1 small sized trip per week in April through August
• 2 standard sized trips per week in September through December.

From 2012 through 2030:

• 4 standard sized trips per week in January through March
• 2 standard and 2 small sized trip per week in April through August
• 4 standard sized trips per week in September through December.

After these launch dates are pre-scheduled, how many trips will remain
available for the 2008 lottery?

It is likely that very few trips outside of the March through October
time period will be booked through this pre-scheduling. If no winter
trips are chosen and throughout the rest of the year the maximum
number of trips are chosen, the total for this 2008 pre-scheduling
would be around 70 trips. This would leave around 200 trips for the
2008 lottery (42% winter, 38% spring and fall, 20% summer). Similarly,
we predict around 220 trips for the 2009 lottery and 240 trips for
2010 and 2011 lotteries. After that we predict at least 365 trips per
year will remain available for the lottery (there are up to 503
noncommercial trips per year).

Is it fair to take these trips away from the lottery and give it to
these people?

We believe this is a fair and appropriate action. According to our
predictions, the trip leaders who will benefit from these launch dates
would have reached the top of the waitlist by the time we offer them
this assistance. If the Colorado River Management Plan had not changed
things for them, they would have had an exclusive opportunity to
pre-schedule. Our “adaptive management” action is specifically
intended to take care of these former waitlist members who could have
won through the old system and haven’t been lucky enough to win a
launch through the lottery system.


Hope this helps.

Rich Phillips

Join Grand Canyon Private Boaters Association at http://www.gcpba.org.
click on "Join", and support active, ongoing private boater
representation on Grand Canyon issues. And follow GC issues on
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