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Old 08-22-2010   #1
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 21
Frog Rock Thread

Cadster, glad to see you're also an open-boater. I've been using the single blade in Colorado since 1989. And I've probably ran The Fractions at least 20 times.

Well, I guess it does boil down to percentages. However, I'm sorry, but I really can't see the automobile traffic comparison. First of all, I'm talking about swimmers only...not paddlers that stay in their boat. You know, what is the percentage that you will swim through the sieve and live to tell about it vs. swimming through a rapid like Zoom Flume. I give ZF about 99.9% to maybe 80% for the sieve at Frog Rock. Of course, these are merely guesses, but you see what I'm driving at. I've actually not heard of anyone drowning at ZF, but I know that a lot more people swim there than at Frog. So, I'm guessing that one swimmer in five that go into the sieve doesn't go home. What would be your guess? Just curious.

The bottom line: If an inexperienced family member or good friend of yours tells you they are going to run The Fractions with privates or commercials, how would you advise them?

a. Great! Go for it!
b. Make sure your guide portages Frog Rock.
c. I'm loading my boat and am going, too, to make sure you are safe.
d. Don't do it! Run Brown's instead!

Think about it.


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Old 08-22-2010   #2
Longmont, Colorado
Paddling Since: 98
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 328
e. Ask your guide where Frog Rock rapid is. When you get there paddle like your life depends on it and whatever you do, don't swim. Oh, and have fun.

And only looking at how many swimmers through the seive survive is twisting the facts. Are you a politican?

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Old 08-22-2010   #3
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 21
GPP33, Another poster had brought up the death rate idea. I was just following up on that. Guess we are all politicians in one form or another.

AVR, I really don't see any armchair quarterbacking here. This is discourse, which is what the internet and message boards are all about. Change always starts with discourse. I know that neither you nor I will ever have any problem with this rapid, because we know how to stay safe. I just really do not want anyone else to die here. That's the bottom line for me. And BTW, everywhere we look, there are things in our life that other people have come up with to make us safer (PFDs for one). Some are good, and some aren't so good. I believe a modification at Frog Rock would be good.

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Old 08-22-2010   #4
Dillon, Colorado
Paddling Since: 2001
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 27
GPP33, I would like to say that your comment "So yes, the feature does add to the rapid, it adds excitment to an otherwise simple straight forward rapid" really makes me wonder if you think twice about the life lost at Frog Rock. Kim was a friend of mine, and a colleague. We are extremely lucky that this tragedy did not involve more of the participants that were in the raft that evening. Think about what you say, before you open your mouth. It would be appreciated. Thank you.
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Old 08-22-2010   #5
V for Victory
9300ft, Colorado
Paddling Since: 2005
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 325
Send a message via AIM to SummitAP
GPP33 you do realize this raft was full of guides. Kim was a guide.

As for twisting the facts, everyone I've talked to says that 6 people have died at this feature, but we have a few of the folks who are so opposed to altering the feature they have to minimize the tragedy by saying that only four have died in order to defend their point.

As if a 33% decrease (and trying to erase those people's deaths from memory) makes it somehow alright if it wasn't before.

But humans are very bad at risk calculations. What percentage is an OK death risk?

We tend to think of mountaineering on K2 as about as risky as you can get in outdoor pursuits... 27% risk of fatality per attempt...

Whitewater recreation is supposed to be pretty safe. 0.008-0.011% fatality risk per user day on average (using AWA #s) with kayaking being a bit more at about 0.03%, but still slightly safer than driving a car!

Using Missouri Boater's guesstimate of 20% risk of fatality per swim at frog rock, that swim is roughly 200,000% more dangerous than the average whitewater day. That's a bit much for class III, don't you think? If we don't alter the feature, maybe we should rerate Fractions as Class V+ based on consequences. Or I guess we could put up those risk numbers on a sign... I bet that would reaaaaaaaaaally help
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Old 08-22-2010   #6
V for Victory
9300ft, Colorado
Paddling Since: 2005
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 325
Send a message via AIM to SummitAP
Frog Rock Thread

As to the naturalness of the river feature, how about the river being unnaturally held at dangerous flow levels longer than it naturally would due to human flow control for agricultural water needs downstream? That's as natural as the roads and rails on the river bank.
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Old 08-22-2010   #7
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 144
Frog Rock Thread

I thought I'd start this thread for a discussion about the sieve at Frog Rock for discussion about past and future incidents, and possible solutions. I sort of thought we'd leave the other thread for pertinent thoughts and feelings in regards to the current situation, considering the already considerable hijacking.

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Old 08-22-2010   #8
Longmont, Colorado
Paddling Since: 98
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 328
Apparently what I'm saying is being interpreted incorrectly.

jconnsurf, every time someone looses a life on the river I think about, a lot. Whether or not it's someone I know it hits home, very hard. I have 2 kids and a wife that depend on me, I would never take my or anyone else’s life for granted. Once more, when someone looses his or her life on a stretch that I have or later do run it affects me even more.

One of the big draws for river running is the risk, it's an extreme sport, it's a sport that is more committing than most. Trying to make it "safe" by altering one rapid is crazy. Recognizing that does not in any way take away from the lives that have been lost there. Pouring concrete or blasting dynamite won't bring them back. I'm sorry you lost a friend, I feel for you. Just don't loose sight of make this a great sport and a great community.

SummitAP, you mention that it was a raft of guides but offer not further explanation of what relevance that holds. Care to expand on this? And yes I was aware, it holds no bearing on my opinions. As for your statistics, no point in arguing it but you are way off base and your numbers are intentionally misleading. If you want to compare it to survival on K2 try looking at all of the people who run it, not just the ones who fall out of their boat, you'll see it's a pretty safe section of river. Either that or compare it only to the climbers who fall, or the drivers who crash. Like I said, kind of a pointless argument though.
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Old 08-22-2010   #9
Longmont, Colorado
Paddling Since: 98
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 328
Smart move. If anyone wants to further debate the statistics that have been presented in the other thread I’ll bite over here, I’m done on the other thread though.

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Old 08-23-2010   #10
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 21
I've stated my case. I really have nothing else. Of course, I'm sure we will go through all this again within the next couple of years if no modifications are made.

You all take care.


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