Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 02-06-2006   #31
jonny water's Avatar
Geologist, Colorado
Paddling Since: 1991
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 583

Already been done.....see jmack's post above and hit graph. According to the last 30 years of data, Clear Creek (at Golden) has never peaked over 2400 cfs.

jonny water is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-06-2006   #32
God Amongst Men
yetigonecrazy's Avatar
Phuoc My, Da Nang, THE 'NAM
Paddling Since: 1845
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 1,988
Cebolla probably wont go very big or go much this year. snowpack in that area isnt too good right now....

yetigonecrazy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-06-2006   #33
Phillips's Avatar
Lakewood, Colorasta
Paddling Since: 1997
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 843
Yeah CC should definately be way over 1000. Probrably more like 2200. I've done Black rock at 1200 and that was plenty of fun and then some.
Phillips is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-06-2006   #34
Golden, Colorado
Paddling Since: 1999
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 321
Most of those historic peak flows that you get off the guages are averaged over the entire day, so it ignores any daily flow fluctuation. The actual peak flows are probably higher.

I'll wager 2000 for peak in golden this year.
benpetri is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-06-2006   #35
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 498
Must of been june 95 and between 2000 and 2500. any way in the mid 90's it was above 1000 A fair amont. Some guy put in below Rigor in a 14ft bucket boat with an oar frame. The passanger got to shore but the oarsman did'nt mid forties and dead. The SAR guy was going on about record flows and what not. Helped the Jefco deputy try to identify the guy. Lots of dope in his ammo can was embarrased for the dead guy. Obviously a day that sticks out in my memory.

What i was really looking for tho is snowpack percentage corolation to peak flow. ie 100% snowpack eqauals 950 cfs and so forth. Cuz 177% if it holds would i think lead to considerably more than 1000.

Also there was a notation on 95 saying peak daily average. which could mean it was higher than 2300 in the early evening. Of course it's even more possible the SAR guy was exagerating to make a point. Cuz as i try to remember more it was the guy that got the body that was going on and on about the flow. sj
sj is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-06-2006   #36
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 97
I don't think you could correlate % snowpack to peak flows very easily. How fast it melts has a lot to say in what the peak flow is.
jeffro is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-06-2006   #37
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 498
Correct Jeffro but it is a place to start
sj is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-06-2006   #38
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 43
If you look at the peak flows section of the USGS site, the raw numbers (not just percentages) of the snotel stations in the daily report, and the historical information on the snotel sites here:
you can figure out the correlation between peak flows and snow amounts. Disclaimer: this is very addicting and will take up a lot of your time in satisfying your curiosities and will cause chronic dreaming of big water, waterfalls, etc. Temperature patterns have a lot to do with peak flows as well. Sudden increase in temps early in the season = big peak while gradual increase in temps = gradual increase of flows and lower peak which must be taken into consideration when looking at past peak flows. Wow, I have too much time on my hands.

And for paddlebizzle, the ark is only somewhat dam controlled. The flow from lake creek runs into twin lakes before it hits the ark and that is where late season flows come from. When lake creek hits 4000 cfs next may/june, they'd better release some of it or it will spill over the dam. There is substantial flow that comes from the unregulated main branch of the ark that comes from climax-leadville on down. Bottom line, the numbers and the rest of the ark will be large, 4000 cfs + by my guess.
thatguy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-06-2006   #39
Denver, Colorado
Paddling Since: 2004
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 3,097

I put together a correlation based on the USGS daily peak data and the snowpack % of average Snotel data from the two links in this thread. I used 1997 through 2005, as the basin snowpack averages were not available before 1997. I ended up taking a few obvious outlyers for high peaks (probably heat wave?), and the rest of the data had a 99% R squared, meaning the data fit the curve well. The equation is Peak Rate in CFS (daily average peak rate) = snowpack % of average (max number from snotel monthly basin average) * 7.69.

If clear creek stays at 171% of average, this would mean a peak rate of 1315 cfs. If the snowpack hits 200% with good spring snows, the peak would be 1538 cfs. If a big heat wave comes and melts it all at once, I would add 30-50% to the peak rate.

The big question is how much more snow will come. It seems that in big snow years, the snowpack increases in % in the spring. So I will take my stab at things, and guess 1500 cfs for clear creek's peak at golden.

I don't know how to post the graphs and spreadsheets on the buzz, but if anyone wants to see it, email me at
deepsouthpaddler is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-06-2006   #40
Denver, Colorado
Paddling Since: 2004
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 3,097
Also, in reply to comments of a poor correlation due to heat and fast run-off. I totally agree. It is clear though that there is a pretty good correlation for the several years that I looked at. The fit that I used was a simple linear equation that goes through the axis at zero, meaning 0 snow = 0 flow, and this doesn't seem to make too much difference.

What I can help but thinking is that the geek in me wants to see this data for all basins, but I don't have the time or patience to do it for every basin. I know that there is some river forecast site, but I don't recall where, and I have no idea how they predict. I am sure someone, somewhere is predicting peak flows etc. A lot of highway, bridge, and flooded home $$$ depend on it.

deepsouthpaddler is offline   Reply With Quote

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off

Similar Threads
Topic Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Rage-In Wear Class 5 Dry Top teleboater5.13 Whitewater Kayaking 5 02-19-2009 10:46 AM
I'd like to run the Ark from the #'s down next spring ncpat Whitewater Kayaking 12 08-04-2006 03:07 PM
Northwestern Rivers Vs. Southeastern Rivers... Goreman Whitewater Kayaking 2 03-29-2006 10:10 AM
Kayaking CO for Spring Break, How are the rivers flowing? icyH2O Whitewater Kayaking 4 03-16-2005 05:16 AM
Spring is in the air! Withdrawn 1 Whitewater Kayaking 4 03-08-2005 07:40 PM

» Classified Ads
Immersion Research...

posted by jasons

2014 IR supermodel drysuit. I'm 5'10", 150lbs and figure...

Liquid Logic BRAAAP

posted by pjmacnaughton

Liquid Logic Braaap Whitewater kayak 69 gal black/green...

AT Geronimo Glass Paddle...

posted by MaxInTexas

AT Geronimo straight shaft paddle with 30 degree offset. ...

Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

Our Communities

Our communities encompass many different hobbies and interests, but each one is built on friendly, intelligent membership.

» More about our Communities

Automotive Communities

Our Automotive communities encompass many different makes and models. From U.S. domestics to European Saloons.

» More about our Automotive Communities

Marine Communities

Our Marine websites focus on Cruising and Sailing Vessels, including forums and the largest cruising Wiki project on the web today.

» More about our Marine Communities

Copyright 2002-2012 Social Knowledge, LLC All Rights Reserved.

All times are GMT -6. The time now is 01:20 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2016, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.