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Old 04-16-2009   #21
Longmont, Colorado
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 173
thanks for the pics tyson...jmack thanks for the predictions, think i'll just plan on that

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Old 04-23-2009   #22
bwest's Avatar
Denver, Colorado
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 120
any escalante visuals this week?

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Old 04-23-2009   #23
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 168
I got a bud rolling down 50 today. I convinced him to head up and take a look see. Should have a second hand visual by this afternoon.
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Old 04-23-2009   #24
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 393
Second hand report from yesterday is that the fin rock is covered nicely. I might have some pics later in the day.

It was hotter than hell out there yesterday and we've got a cold front coming so I'm not sure any visuals will tell us much about this coming weekend. The hot weather may have just been a big tease.
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Old 04-23-2009   #25
Denver, Colorado
Paddling Since: 2004
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 3,097
My two cents...

Escalante is running now, should be good today through sat. Cooler weather rolls in sat and sat night. Sunday flows likely down, but how far down? Not sure. I'd guess med/low to med fri/sat, and low on sunday. Likely too low into next week as we get extended cool weather. Just my guess based on all the data I look at.

What I use to predict flows for trip planning...

Roubideau barometer guage showing large daily bumps in flow from hot weather and nights above freezing. Keep an eye on the roubideau to get an idea of how weather trends are impacting the plateau. Roubideau is the next door drainage to the south of escalante and drains similar aspect and elevation. Yes there are diversions, but they can only take water out. If the roubideau is going up by leaps and bounds, expect escalante to do the same. If the roubideau is nose diving, expect escalante to do the same.

Roubideau barometer
Detail Graph

I also check the colorado basin river forecast center predictions for gunnison at delta and grand junction. They seem to be pretty good at predicting trends for a few days out. Looking at gunny flows gives a broad perspective on how the weather is predicted to impact the general area. Current predictions call for a flows to sustain fri and sat, and then start tailing off sun. Kinda hard to read the date and flow scale, mouse over the flow trend and it will show date and stage where your mouse is.

Gunny @ Delta

Gunny @ junction

I use the NOAA weather forecast for delta, co and escalante forks, co to see what the weather is looking like.

7-Day Forecast for Latitude 38.75N and Longitude 108.06W (Elev. 4999 ft)

Another interesting site is Colorado Weather Map - The feature I really like about this site is it gives contour intervals for the freezing elevation in the atmosphere. The uncompaghre plateau is about 10,000ft. If the freezing contour over the plateau is 10,000ft or higher, its not predicted to freeze on the plateau. If the freezing contour over the plateau is below 10,000ft, its predicted to freeze on the plateau, which will clamp down on flows. You can scroll through the forecast days and check precip estimates and freezing line contours predicted for the next couple of days.

All of this info gets a lot more precise with visual reports to calibrate what the actual flows are. Used in conjunction with visuals, you can use these tools effectively to plan a trip out to escalante.

Hopefully this info is helpful to some. I'm gonna be out there fri/sat... let the boating season commence!

Also please post visual reports with date and estimated flow so that I can continue to refine the roubideau barometer predictor. What I came up with before was...

Robideau Level (cfs) = Estimated Escalante Level (57' Chevy Fin)
0 - 149 = TOO LOW (fin very exposed)
150 - 249 = LOW (fin exposed)
250 - 349 = MEDIUM (fin barely covered)
350 - 599 = HIGH (fin completely covered)
600+ = CRANKIN

Last year did not see too much improvement on the correlation because escalante was flooding for weeks and there were not many reports in the low to med level to refine the correlation.

As with any weather prediction, take this with a grain of salt. Its what I personally use to plan my trips, usefulness to others may vary.
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Old 04-23-2009   #26
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 168
I say we just steal a guage from some useless river in Kansas or something, and relocate it.
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Old 04-23-2009   #27
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Grand Junction, Colorado
Paddling Since: 2005
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 297
I'd be willing to camp out above the inner gorge for the next month and report in thrice daily via satellite relay, if someone wants to donate a satellite internet setup. $15 an hour, comprehensive health and dental, and maybe a couple of paid days off would be nice too. Oh, and whiskey, a nice big bottle of good whiskey. No handguns, though.
-Τὸ χόβερκράφτ μου εἶναι γεμᾶτο χέλια!
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Old 04-23-2009   #28
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185 lb. waste of space, Keeping Glenwood Springs real
Paddling Since: 1864
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 917
I am in GJ today heading to Escalante Fri if anyone wants to join me. I am on bike so I figure to get there before or around twelve. I will be hitting that chocolate sat too.

970-217-21 six six
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Old 04-23-2009   #29
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Boulder, Colorado
Paddling Since: 2003
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 2,032
Anyone plan on being out there Sunday? Have some people to run with Sat, but would like to do Sun. as well even if it's low.
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Old 04-23-2009   #30
Durango, Colorado
Paddling Since: 1996
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 808

I am going up for the whole weekend. My guess on flows is medium Saturday and low-medium Sunday. Will probably have folks from Durango both days too. Also, get in touch with ACC. See you there.

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