El Nino Returns

[Force]

Could be good news,

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2699.htm

[brokenpaddlejon]

Not usually good news. El Nino years usually don't produce as much snow on average. Which equates into a poor ski season and a poor spring run off. On the other hand if you like golf you might be able to hit the links more often in the winter. Good luck all you Tiger wanna bees.

[Chief Niwot]

I would have to agree with Brokenpaddlejon. I remember El Nino years that have generated high pressuse to the West of Colorado and the storm track splits to the South and North leaving us drier and warmer then usual in the Central and Northern Colorado mountains. In those years, I remember we get a few big storms, especially in the spring for the Front Range, but loose the consistant storm track flow.

It might be a good year to take a southern Colorado and northern New Mexico ski/road trip and plan to boat there in the spring. Of course, forecasting weather is like hearding cats. We will find out soon, do your snow dance.

[cecil]

it also depends on where in the Pacific ocean the El Nino is occuring. If the surface temps are warmer up north we will have a much better chance of some great precip compared to if it the El Nino is occuring in the Southern Hemisphere. It is true, the past couple El Nino's have produced drier weather for Central Colorado, but much wetter than normal down south and even up north.

Although, in theory, when the surfact temps rise in the Pacific ocean, it is supposed to create more storm systems for all of N. America. What really makes the biggest difference is where the jet stream is pushing all that moisture.

El Nino also is indicitive of some pretty big early spring storms, which would be great for paddling next year. I would prefer that over last year when we got all our snow Nov/Dec then had a very dry winter after.

[Chief Niwot]

Cecil, I hope your right. I have noticed that in Nederland we have had a wet summer and so far, Fall seems to be wetter then past years.

Also, if you look at the drought forecast, NOAA is indicating developing drought in the Northwest, some improvement conditions in the southwest, and improving conditions in the Southcentral. So maybe that dreaded high pressure to the West of Colorado won't develope and split the storm track to the North and South of us.

I am also hoping for a major cold spell this winter, which doesn't look likely from the winter forecasts that I have seen. Not that I like to ski in it all that much, but to kill off these darn pine beetles that are getting ready to come over the divide in force. I understand that two weeks of below zero temps can help to kill them off!

[Chief Niwot]

Another Winter guess From SnowForecast.com

WINTER OUTLOOK: Regarding this winter, we have a developing El Nino sea surface temperature pattern in the Pacific. The latest (Sep 13th) is that we may see a moderate El Nino SST pattern this winter. We expect the following this winter; A good shot at seeing more snowfall than average for southern Colorado, and less snowfall than average for northern Colorado...in general. We do think winter will start off with a bang though, with possibly more snowfall than usual through December. Many times in an El Nino pattern, we are also dealing with snow levels being a bit high on average as the moisture source is usually subtropical, but this is rarely an issue for high elevation Colorado resorts. The time this pattern seems to be most pronounced is January onward. We will watch and see how this develops.

[mania]

Originally Posted by Open Boater

A good shot at seeing more snowfall than average for southern Colorado, and less snowfall than average for northern Colorado

Bring it! Forget East slope vs West slope ->>> SoCo kicks NoCos arse!!