Yeah, by July 4th, natural flow is down and long draw makes up a big portion of the flow. But, this year natural flow is going down earlier, so I think that will make things a nick lower than a typical year.
Long Draw delivers water into the Poudre for eventual use by farmers etc on the plains. I spoke with the Long Draw folks yesterday, and they didn't have good news. They said Long Draw is 1/2 full and they don't have much water to deliver this year. They expect flows to be in the 150-200 cfs range coming out of Long Draw during big south season. I would expect Long Draw flows to be shorter than typical, and less overall cfs than typical. Short story... get it while you can.
I've always wanted to do some streamflow measurements at big south to figure out exactly what the flow is at before the confluence to figure out how much is natural and how much is long draw. That would be a fun gauge geek project. If anyone has access to streamflow measurement equipment and wants to tackle it, let me know.