Go Back   Mountain Buzz > Whitewater Boating > Whitewater Kayaking

Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 05-02-2006   #11
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 40
Sorry guys
I don't think you will see 4G's in the Ark.
In the past ten years the Ark has broken 3000cfs 5 times. Currently the ark is at 75% of the ten year average for snow pack. I am no math wizard but it doesn't look real promising for the Ark to have big water. And, the only reason that the ark snowpack is that high is because the freemont pass snotel site is high.

Here is a graph of the Ark peak flows for the Browns canyon gauge for the past ten years.

Pine creek/#'s are still lots of fun at <2000cfs.

BEANER is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-02-2006   #12
Denver, Colorado
Paddling Since: 1999
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 855
You definitely are no math wizard. The graph looks crappy because of the lower drainage areas (BELOW THE GORGE) have no snow. The upper areas are plum full of the white stuff. My suggestion would be for you to leave "paradise" for a day and drive north to the Freemont Pass area...your view may change.

MATH 101: A+B+C+D+E= X : divide X by 5 = average. A graph is an average that is calculated on all of the drainages. If 2 drainages have very low numbers, then that will GREATLY affect the "average." If you look at each individual drainage you will see that the drainages that start from Salida up to the source ---Freemont 112%, Brumley(Independence) 107%, Apishapa 100%, Porphyry Creek 85% --- are doing very well. The drainages below the Royal Gorge are really low. Remember last year? It was the dead opposite. Low numbers at the upper drainages, and high numbers at the lower drainages. What was the peak flow from that? It was bigger than Beaner's "PESSIMISTIC" 1850CFS guess.

The peak flow will depend on May's weather. Wet and rainy it will go BIG...dry, windy, and hot it will be much lower.

Just my opinion...

marko is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-02-2006   #13
Highlands Ranch, CO Paddling Since: 1993
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 482
Beaner the only reason you are saying lower is because that is what you are hoping for, because if it gets above 1200 you start to pee yourself.hahahaha

Like Marko said it all depends on what the weather does in may, I think 3600 (in the gorge)
stinginrivers is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-02-2006   #14
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 43
Marko is right about the snow in the upper basin and lack there of in the lower, but where are you getting those percentages? The snotel report I checked for today says 120% and 70% for freemont and brumley respectively. From just looking at the percentages and history of snow and flows, I'm going with 3500 @ nathrop. Depends if we get one early, quick warmup or if the temps fart around till late june, we'll see, 4k could be possible if the weather does it right.
thatguy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-06-2006   #15
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 40
I stand by it. Which is a great level for the salida upper hole.
look for my new move this summer- The CHOCODILE.

Looks like the #'s have changed as far as snowpack.

APISHAPA 10000 .2 2.9 7 8.3 15.3 54
BRUMLEY 10600 5.2 8.7 60 17.6 16.5 107
FREMONT PASS 11400 23.0 19.5 118 20.7 18.7 111
GLEN COVE 11460 .0 -M * 10.8 -M *
PORPHYRY CREEK 10760 4.5 13.6 33 15.6 18.5 84
SOUTH COLONY 10800 10.8 16.6 65 18.5 25.9 71
WHISKEY CK 10220 .3 5.0 6 12.3 19.4 63
----- -----
Basin wide percent of average 66 81

BTW -Danny, how is the stinger hand roll coming?

reppin' 81201
BEANER is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-06-2006   #16
Highlands Ranch, CO Paddling Since: 1993
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 482
Beaner, I think I might need hand paddles for my roll...

stinginrivers is offline   Reply With Quote


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off

Similar Threads
Topic Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
greys peak liam dunn Winter Buzz 2 08-17-2006 10:02 AM
Did Vallecito just peak? Leland Whitewater Kayaking 1 05-17-2006 10:51 PM
SO. PLATTE PREDICTIONS cayo Whitewater Kayaking 1 04-25-2006 08:16 AM
Poudre flow predictions pbowman Whitewater Kayaking 0 07-05-2005 12:50 PM
Predictions on Escalante level for Saturday? Caspian Whitewater Kayaking 3 04-21-2005 09:31 PM

» Classified Ads
Kokatat Dry Suit, Sweet...

posted by condor

Kokatat GMER, XXL, excellent condition, well cared for, no...

Pyranha S6F

posted by CFriday

2008 Pyranha S6F. Stopped paddling in 2008, been stored in...

2016 Dagger Nomad...

posted by atom

2016 Dagger Nomad LG Used as intended but tons of life...

Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

Our Communities

Our communities encompass many different hobbies and interests, but each one is built on friendly, intelligent membership.

» More about our Communities

Automotive Communities

Our Automotive communities encompass many different makes and models. From U.S. domestics to European Saloons.

» More about our Automotive Communities

Marine Communities

Our Marine websites focus on Cruising and Sailing Vessels, including forums and the largest cruising Wiki project on the web today.

» More about our Marine Communities

Copyright 2002-2012 Social Knowledge, LLC All Rights Reserved.

All times are GMT -6. The time now is 01:05 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2016, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.