South platte basin as a whole is 130% for snowpack but that covers everything from the poudre down to the headwaters of the south platte above cheeseman and elevenmile. Poudre, clear creek, and big T were all 140%+ at april 1. On april 1 the upper south platte (farthest south portion of the south platte) was 96% of average. The 96% is a bit misleading though as its just a straight up average of the handful of snotel sites with no weighting on watershed size etc.
If you look at the point maps of the colorado snotel sites, you can see a couple of upper south platte sites that are well below average. (one below 50%).
See link below.
Wet conditions kicked ass in summit, and along the continental divide of the front range, but as you get to the southern portions of the upper south platte drainage, you start hitting the dry areas that did not get snow, and everything to the south is well below average.
If you look at drought conditions, which aren't just snotel, you will see that pretty much most of park county (headwaters of upper south platte) is dry. This means that although the 10,000 ft snotels along the continental divide are doing well, the portions of the upper south platte basin are relatively dry. See map below. Park county is the large county almost in the middle fo the state with the bulge in the yellow countour.
State Drought Monitor
Another factor is that lower elevations on the front range have been very dry this year, even though the high elevation has gotten slammed. This means dry soils, which can absorb water and dampen runoff. Even though snowpack might be X% of average, runoff can be a lower % of average due to dry soils that suck up some of the runoff.
Its the upper south platte headwaters that is currently relatively dry that feeds antero, elevenmile and cheeseman which are the southern portion of denver waters supply system. The other portion is roberts tunnel, which pulls out of lake dillon on the blue river basin. If the upper south platte is below average with dry soil conditions, and the blue river is 130%+ then its a good bet that you will see decent roberts tunnel flows later in the season.
I spoke with Denver Water about some of my observations they agreed, and added to some of the above analysis.
Its a bit long, but thats the logic behind the potential for a pretty good north fork season via the roberts tunnel.